A 2021 "arbitrage" bot for PancakeSwap Prediction, revisited as an empirical study. 144k on-chain rounds: naive parimutuel edges of +15–25% are erased by informed late betting — a reverse favorite–longshot bias that faded as pools deepened. Dataset, bot, and analysis reproducible in 3 commands.
☆15Jul 5, 2026Updated 2 months ago
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